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China's cotton is in an emergency
Since October last year, domestic cotton prices in China have surged to record highs not seen since 2003. Over the past three years, as the prices of staple crops like wheat, corn, and rice steadily increased, the area dedicated to cotton farming has shrunk. In just two years, the national cotton planting area dropped by approximately 14 million mu (about 9.3 million acres).
Facing the soaring cotton prices and declining production, China's 11,773 spinning companies are bracing for another intense "cottage battle" this year. On August 10, in response to market demand, the China Reserve Cotton Management Corporation began releasing 600,000 tons of state reserve cotton into the market. However, despite this effort, the price of cotton on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continued to rise, with transaction prices exceeding the reserve price of 16,500 yuan per ton, often reaching above 18,200 yuan.
Analysts suggest that the limited quantity of released reserves—only enough to meet one month’s demand—was insufficient to significantly impact the strong market demand, thus limiting the effectiveness of the intervention. Many cotton spinning companies admitted they had underestimated the price surge this year, some even investing heavily in transporting cotton from Xinjiang via trucks. Domestic cotton prices rose from around 10,000 yuan per ton in early 2009 to 14,833 yuan by the end of last year. By June 30 this year, the spot price of 328 cotton had reached 18,309 yuan per ton, a 42.6% increase compared to the same period last year and an 83.1% rise from the start of last year.
According to an industry analyst, the current situation is “crazy.†While the 2003 peak saw prices rise to 18,000 yuan per ton before retreating, the recent surge has been more volatile. In Hebei, a company producing new fabrics noted that both Xinjiang and local cotton prices have hit 10-year highs, with cotton yarn prices also climbing. For example, real estate grade 3 cotton in March was priced at 16,000 yuan per ton, rising to 18,500 yuan by June. Similarly, Xinjiang’s third-grade cotton went from 16,500 yuan to about 19,200 yuan during the same period.
While rising cotton prices may not be the biggest issue for spinning companies, the challenge lies in securing sufficient raw materials. Hunan’s largest textile company, Dongxin Group, recently faced a shortage of 7,000 tons of cotton before the new harvest in October. The group has stockpiled over 10,000 tons but still faces capital and market risks. They have requested increased import quotas and transport subsidies to ease the bottleneck of cotton moving out of Xinjiang.
In Yueyang, a textile company manager expressed concern over rising cotton prices, noting that many orders were signed earlier this year, but product prices remain unchanged, leading to significant losses. Meanwhile, Chen Kun, general manager of Fujian Jiada Textile Co., Ltd., remarked that managing cotton supply has become a high-stakes game, with few experts capable of navigating the complex market.
Globally, the tight supply-demand balance has driven up cotton prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that global cotton production has lagged behind demand for 15 consecutive years, with this year’s harvested area being the lowest in over 20 years. Floods in China and Pakistan, along with India’s export ban, have further tightened the market. In China, southern provinces experienced severe floods, reducing cotton output by an estimated 5-10%. Pakistan’s floods destroyed 30% of its cotton fields, potentially turning it into a net importer in 2010.
USDA predicts that China’s cotton imports will rise by 14% to 1.25 million bales in 2011, while Pakistan’s imports could jump by 53%. Global cotton demand is expected to grow by 2.7%, but stocks are at their lowest level since 1994, meeting only 38% of demand. This imbalance has pushed international cotton prices toward a 15-year high.
Domestically, China’s cotton planting area has declined significantly, from 120 million mu in 1984 to around 75 million today. Production fell from 7.6 million tons in 2007 to 6.4 million in 2009. Provinces like Henan and Shandong have seen sharp reductions, with some areas dropping by over 20%. Farmers, facing low returns and competition from other crops, are losing interest in cotton.
To reverse this trend, experts recommend policy support, including subsidies and better access to information and technology. At the same time, the textile industry must adapt to high cotton prices by focusing on industrial upgrading, diversifying fiber use, and increasing efficiency. As Xu Wenying of the China Textile Industry Association emphasized, the era of rapid expansion is over, and the future lies in innovation, quality, and sustainable growth.
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