Low growth analysis of textile exports

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Low growth analysis of textile exports With the impact of the economic crisis, globalization this year has been in a downturn and development is worrying. The European debt crisis led to the overall decline of the European Union economy, the slow recovery of the United States economy, and Japan’s lack of economic growth. At the same time, China’s relations with Japan have once again turned to evil.

In this context, coupled with the impact of *** appreciation, rising labor costs, and high prices of production factors, China's foreign trade in textiles and garments once again fell into a period of low growth after the global financial crisis in 2008, for the whole year (as of October). Only 2% increase.

From January to October, the cumulative trade volume of textiles and garments was 230.04 billion U.S. dollars, up 2.4%, of which exports were 209.91 billion U.S. dollars, up 2%; imports were 20.14 billion U.S. dollars, up 6.3%. The cumulative surplus was US$189.77 billion, an increase of 1.6%.

More than half of the monthly exports have fallen, and small-scale border trade exports have grown rapidly.

The country's foreign trade exports are facing a severe situation, and textiles and clothing are more affected. Textile manufacturers have suffered large-scale losses and even closed down. In the first 10 months, textile and apparel exports have declined for 6 months, of which 6-months have declined for 3 consecutive months. To support the development of foreign trade, the State Council promulgated the "Several Opinions on Promoting Steady Growth in Foreign Trade," and identified eight policies and measures to speed up the progress of export tax rebates and raise the level of trade facilitation. Further reduce the list of statutory inspection and quarantine, and waive the entry and exit inspection and quarantine fees for all statutory inspection and quarantine objects in the fourth quarter of 2012. These measures will give companies the most effective support in terms of funding, helping companies to reduce their burdens and tide over difficulties. At the same time, due to the lower base figure in the same period of last year, September's exports rebounded sharply. Exports rose by 9.3% during the month and increased by 15.8% in October. This led to a cumulative export growth of 2% in the first 10 months. However, this growth is still a recovery growth, and the export volume has not really expanded. Taking bulk commodities and woven garments as an example, the total volume of occlusal garments exported in October was 2.6 billion pieces (sets), which was a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, but only flat compared with the same period of 2010.

From January to October, cumulative exports of general trade increased by 1.6%, processing trade fell by 2.2%, and small-frontier trade increased by 27.9%. The small-frontier trade surged in exports in October. The current month's exports reached 2.06 billion U.S. dollars, 168.7% and 77.9% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively, and contributed 32% to the overall export growth. The main one is that Guangxi's exports to Vietnam have increased rapidly, with an increase of 13 times.

On the import side, from January to October, cumulative imports of general trade increased by 24.8%, and processing trade decreased by 3.7%.

Exports to Europe and Japan continue to decline

From January to October, exports to the European Union amounted to US$39.45 billion, a decrease of 12.4%, of which the original 15 countries fell by 13.5%. Of the original 15 countries, only the United Kingdom, Finland, and Luxembourg continued to grow; all other countries fell, and the decline in Germany and Italy was more than 20%. The EU’s clothing exports fell by 14.5%, of which the export volume and price of needle-woven garments decreased by 12.3% and 3% respectively. The outlook for EU exports is bleak.

According to EU customs statistics, from January to September, the EU imported 89.59 billion U.S. dollars of textiles and clothing, a decrease of 14.5%, of which textiles and clothing decreased by 16.1% and 13.9% respectively.

The EU’s share of China’s imports of textiles and apparel, especially apparel, continued to fall. From January to September, textiles and apparel imports from China totaled 35.99 billion US dollars, a decrease of 16.3%, a decline exceeding the average value. The share of Chinese products in the EU market was 40.2%, which represents a decrease of 0.9% compared to the same period of last year. The proportion of garments fell to 42%, which was a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the same period last year. The share of ASEAN in the EU textile and apparel market rose to 8.2%, an increase of 0.6% from the same period last year.

From January to October, cumulative exports to Japan totaled 22.77 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.3%. The increase was lower than that of the United States and ASEAN. Among them, the export of garments increased by 1.7%, the export volume of woven garments decreased by 5.4%, and the average unit price of exports increased by 7.1%.

According to statistics from Japan Customs, from January to September, Japan’s textile and apparel imports totaled 31.93 billion U.S. dollars, up 2.2%, of which textiles declined by 1.1% and apparel rose by 3.2%. Imports from China amounted to 23.19 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 0.5%. The share of Chinese products in the Japanese market fell to 72.6%, which was a decrease of 2 percentage points from the same period of last year, of which apparel accounted for 76.7%, which fell rapidly and fell by 3% compared with the same period of last year.

The order-shifting phenomenon was most prominent in the Japanese market. From January to September, Japan’s textile and apparel imports from ASEAN grew rapidly, with an increase of 16.6%. ASEAN’s market share in Japan rose to 13.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the same period last year, of which apparel was expanded by 2.3%.

Exports to the United States maintain growth

With the slow recovery of the economy, the performance of the U.S. market was relatively stable, and the US textile and apparel exports maintained a slight increase. From January to October, total exports to the United States reached US$32.82 billion, an increase of 3.8%, of which textiles and apparel rose by 6.3% and 3% respectively. The total number of needle woven garment exports was 4.7 billion pieces (sets), an increase of 5.1%. The average unit price was US$4.28/piece (set), a decrease of 2.8%.

According to U.S. Customs statistics, from January to September, the cumulative import of textiles and clothing in the United States was US$83.11 billion, a decrease of 0.6%, of which textiles increased by 3% and clothing decreased by 1.6%. Since China’s imports of textiles and clothing increased by 0.4%, the share of Chinese products in the US market was 38.9%, up 0.4% from the same period last year. The percentage of imports of the United States from ASEAN was 18.5%, which was no further increase over the same period of last year. Imports from ASEAN fell by 0.7% year-on-year, worse than China.

Clothing replaces textiles as a major export commodity to ASEAN

In October, exports to ASEAN increased significantly. The current month’s export volume reached US$3.46 billion, creating a record high in monthly exports, making ASEAN jump to the largest export market in the month. The export growth rate was 124.3%, of which the total yarn and fabric exports increased by 24.9%. , Garment growth 377.4%.

From January to October, total exports of ASEAN textiles and clothing amounted to US$20.75 billion, an increase of 30.8%, which became the main force driving overall exports to achieve growth. Among them, exports to Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia grew fastest, with increases of 56.6%, 33%, and 32.4%, respectively. In recent years, I have been exporting ASEAN mainly to textiles, especially yarns and fabrics. This year, the situation has changed. Clothing gradually replaces textiles as the main export commodity. At the beginning of the year, clothing accounted for only one-third of the share. In October, the proportion of clothing has rapidly risen to nearly 60%, and the cumulative proportion from January to October also rose to 38.5%.

Central provinces and cities export growth rapidly

From January to October, of the traditional top five export provinces and cities, only Guangdong recovered weak growth, while other provinces and cities were negative growth. Stimulating overall growth of textile and apparel mainly from the Fujian area and the Midwest Anhui, Guangxi and Jiangxi, four of the country's export growth to total 2.3 percentage points to form a positive pull, the textile industry has become increasingly prominent trend in the eastern region by the transfer to the central region.

Yarn export volume increases or cotton yarn imports keep growing

From January to October, exports of textiles and clothing increased by 1% and 2.6% respectively. Fabrics and finished goods achieved growth of 0.3% and 3.8% respectively, and yarns fell 5.3%. The yarn export volume increased by 6.4% as a whole, which was mainly due to the growth of commodity cotton yarns and chemical fiber yarns. The unit price of yarn export decreased by 11%, and the largest decline was also in cotton yarns and chemical fiber yarns. The export volume of needles and woven garments in clothing decreased by 1.7%, and the unit price of exports increased by 3.8%.

From January to October, textiles imported 16.39 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.6%, and apparel imports 3.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 14%. Textile fabrics, manufactured imports decreased by 4.5% and 1.6% respectively, the rapid growth of the yarn inlet, import, increase the value of 34.1% and 21.1%, respectively, wherein the amount of cotton yarn inlet, an increase of the value of 69.7% and 44% .

Imports of cotton increased slightly due to an increase in chemical fiber imports

In the first 10 months, cotton imports experienced dramatic ups and downs. Monthly imports declined month-on-month after reaching a peak of 62.5 tons in March and fell to 272,000 tons in October. Import growth also increased more than twice from the peak. It dropped to 7.8%. From January to October, the cumulative import of cotton was 4.302 million tons, an increase of 95.8%. There was a big gap between the price of imported cotton and domestic cotton. In October, the price of imported cotton was US$2,290/ton, a decrease of 13.7%. According to the monthly status report released by the China Cotton Association in October, the average price of domestically produced 328 cotton was 18,693 yuan per ton, and the difference between imported and domestic cotton was 4,000 yuan per ton.

The import volume of chemical fiber increased and the price dropped. From January to October, the cumulative imports of chemical fiber increased by 0.2%, and the import unit price decreased by 1.3%.

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